Ranking Derby favorites by bat speed metrics

Evaluating the 2024 T-Mobile Home Run Derby Field Using Statcast’s New Bat Speed Leaderboard

Trying to figure out who has the upper hand in the T-Mobile Home Run Derby? Here’s a fresh perspective using Statcast’s new bat speed leaderboard.

For the 2024 season, Statcast introduced bat tracking, allowing us to analyze which of the eight sluggers in Monday’s Derby at Globe Life Field have the fastest swings going into the competition.

Why Bat Speed Matters in the Home Run Derby

Higher bat speeds result in higher exit velocities, leading to greater distances—especially when the Derby’s elite hitters consistently connect with the ball’s sweet spot. Given that these sluggers are facing batting practice pitches, that extra bat speed could translate into a few more balls leaving the park.

Home Run Derby Contestants by Home Run Totals:

1. Gunnar Henderson (28)
2. Marcell Ozuna (26)
3. José Ramírez (23)
4. Teoscar Hernández (19)
5. Pete Alonso (19)
6. Adolis García (17)
7. Bobby Witt Jr. (16)
8. Alec Bohm (11)

Home Run Derby Contestants by Bat Speed:

1. Gunnar Henderson: 75.8 mph (MLB rank: 9th)
2. Pete Alonso: 75.0 mph (21st)
3. Bobby Witt Jr.: 74.6 mph (28th)
4. Marcell Ozuna: 74.2 mph (37th)
5. Teoscar Hernández: 73.3 mph (49th)
6. Alec Bohm: 72.4 mph (80th)
7. Adolis García: 72.2 mph (86th)
8. José Ramírez: 71.4 mph (117th) MLB average bat speed: 72 mph

The Bat Speed Favorites

1. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles

• Season bat speed: 75.8 mph
• Fast swing rate (% of swings 75+ mph): 61.4%
• Avg. bat speed on HR: 77.2 mph

Henderson boasts a top-10 bat speed in the Majors and excels at converting his elite bat speed into powerful swings. He’s among the top hitters in Statcast’s “blasts” stat—a combination of high bat speed and optimal contact. His home run swings reach an impressive 77.2 mph. For instance, his fastest home run swing of the year, at 80.8 mph, took Phillies ace Zack Wheeler deep to left-center.

2. Pete Alonso, Mets

• Season bat speed: 75.0 mph
• Fast swing rate: 51.5%
• Avg. bat speed on HR: 76.4 mph

Alonso, a two-time Home Run Derby champion, maintains a consistent fast swing, with over half his swings hitting the 75 mph mark. He’s demonstrated his prowess with swings like the 80.0 mph blast against Padres ace Dylan Cease at Citi Field.

3. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals

• Season bat speed: 74.6 mph
• Fast swing rate: 48.7%
• Avg. bat speed on HR: 76.2 mph

Witt’s compact, powerful swing covers just 7.1 feet, the shortest among the Derby contestants, yet generates the third-highest bat speed. His bat speed on home run swings, like the 80.7 mph swing that sent a 468-foot home run into Kauffman Stadium’s fountain, demonstrates his potential to excel in the Derby.

The Bat Speed Sleeper: José Ramírez, Guardians

Ramírez ranks last in bat speed among the Derby participants but has an advantage as a switch-hitter. His right-handed swings boast higher bat speeds compared to his left-handed swings.

Ramírez’s Bat Speed by Plate Side:

• Season bat speed as RHB: 74.1 mph (as LHB: 70.3 mph)
• Fast swing rate as RHB: 37.8% (as LHB: 9.9%)
• Avg. bat speed on HR as RHB: 77.5 mph (as LHB: 72.1 mph)

If Ramírez bats right-handed in the Derby, he’d rank in the top half for bat speed and first in bat speed on home runs. His fastest home run swings, like the 80.6 mph swing against the Royals, all come from the right side. Ramírez plans to decide which side to bat from based on how he feels at Globe Life Field, but his bat speed stats suggest a clear choice.

Using Statcast’s bat speed data offers a new dimension to predicting Home Run Derby performance, potentially giving fans insight into which sluggers might dominate the event.